从太湖流域旱涝史料看历史气候信息处理   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

陈家其 《地理学报》1987,(3)

历史气候信息处理建立在信息提取的基础上,目的在于建立一套方法,将定性的历史气候信息转化为气候变化参数,并消除各种不均—性,从而建立历史气候序列。本文着重介绍建立太湖流域历史旱涝等级序列的方法与步骤: 1)确立信息源,建立信息网络;2)站点等级的确定与订正;3)弱信息处理;4)信息的综合。  相似文献   

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Xiongwen Chen  Xin-Shi Zhang  Bai-Lian Li 《Global and Planetary Change》2003,38(3-4):327-337

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.  相似文献   

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area     

Deng Haibin  Lu Longhua  Bian Lingen 《极地研究(英文版)》2005,16(2)

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.  相似文献   

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Yong Zhang  Shiyin Liu  Junli Xu  Donghui Shangguan 《Environmental Geology》2008,56(1):59-68

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.  相似文献   

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jennifer M. Olson  Gopal Alagarswamy 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):898-911

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.  相似文献   

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Henny Osbahr  Chasca Twyman  W. Neil Adger  David S.G. Thomas 《Geoforum》2008,(6):1951-1964

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.  相似文献   

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002     

G.T. Ruggerone  J.L. Nielsen  J. Bumgarner 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2776

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.  相似文献   

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective     

Kerim Aydin  Franz Mueter   《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2501

The Bering Sea is a high-latitude, semi-enclosed sea that supports extensive fish, seabird, marine mammal, and invertebrate populations and some of the world's most productive fisheries. The region consists of several distinct biomes that have undergone wide-scale population variation, in part due to fisheries, but also in part due to the effects of interannual and decadal-scale climatic variation. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. Here, we examine the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation. Both climate variability and fisheries have substantially altered the Bering Sea ecosystem in the past, but their relative importance in shaping the current ecosystem state remains uncertain.  相似文献   

Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945     

Rögnvaldur Hannesson 《Marine Policy》2007

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.  相似文献